Biases
Survivorship bias is why advice from people who succeeded is mostly noise
· 3 min read
Think Twice Today — A second look at the obvious answer
Biases
Base rate neglect: why a vivid detail beats a background number
When a description feels like a match, people stop asking how many of that kind exist in the first place, and that omission drives a surprising share of everyday misjudgement.
By Samar Bhatia · · 4 min read
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Absolute and relative risk describe the same event and feel nothing alike
Anchoring survived the replication wars, but its explanation did not
Confirmation bias is a search problem before it is a belief problem
Why money already spent keeps getting a vote
A decision can be good and still turn out badly
Reversible and irreversible choices deserve different amounts of thought
Very small probabilities behave badly in the mind
A test that is right most of the time can still be mostly wrong
