Choices
A decision can be good and still turn out badly
· 3 min read
Rohan D’Souza
Features writer, Think Twice Today
Rohan writes the explanatory pieces on biases, choices, risk and would rather show the working than assert the conclusion.
25 articles
Risk
Very small probabilities behave badly in the mind
· 3 min read
Evidence
What a control group is actually for
· 3 min read
Evidence
Regression to the mean makes useless interventions look like they worked
· 4 min read
Evidence
Before you call it causation, three other explanations have to fail
· 3 min read
Choices
Removing your own options is sometimes the strongest move available
· 4 min read
Choices
Knowing when to stop looking is a separate decision from what to pick
· 4 min read
Choices
A group decides worse than its members when everyone talks first
· 3 min read
Risk
Two risks can’t be compared until they share a denominator
· 3 min read
Risk
The average outcome is often one that nobody actually gets
· 3 min read
Evidence
The thing being measured is rarely the thing anyone cares about
· 3 min read
Habits
Practice explains less of expert performance than the famous number implied
· 3 min read
Choices
Doing nothing feels safer than acting, and it is not the same as being safer
· 4 min read
Choices
Decision fatigue is a plausible idea resting on contested evidence
· 3 min read
Risk
A risk that is negligible for you is certain for someone
· 3 min read
Risk
A near miss is data, and it is almost always read as reassurance
· 3 min read
Evidence
Pooling studies fixes the sample size and not the bias
· 3 min read
Evidence
When absence of evidence is evidence of absence, and when it is not
· 3 min read
Habits
Identity is a popular lever with a thin evidence base
· 3 min read
Risk
A more detailed scenario is always less likely and usually more convincing
· 4 min read
Risk
Why some risks frighten more than their numbers warrant, and when that is defensible
· 3 min read
Evidence
A relationship measured across groups can reverse inside them
· 3 min read
Evidence
A second opinion is worth exactly what its independence is worth
· 3 min read
Evidence
Noise in a measurement is not neutral, and it bends results in a known direction
· 4 min read
Habits
The feedback about you is filtered long before it reaches you
· 3 min read