Biases
Base rate neglect: why a vivid detail beats a background number
· 4 min read
Samar Bhatia
Editor, Think Twice Today
Samar joined to cover biases, choices, risk and stayed for the awkward questions and is unreasonably interested in the detail nobody else checks.
12 articles
Biases
Hindsight makes a coin flip look like a plan
· 4 min read
Choices
More options can make a choice worse, but the evidence is messier than the story
· 4 min read
Choices
Opportunity cost is the price that never appears on the tag
· 3 min read
Risk
Making something safer changes how people use it
· 4 min read
Risk
Risks that look independent tend to arrive together
· 3 min read
Evidence
A prediction that cannot be scored was never a prediction
· 4 min read
Choices
Anticipated regret is a real input and a poor master
· 4 min read
Evidence
A theory that explains everything afterwards predicts nothing beforehand
· 3 min read
Habits
Running an experiment on yourself without fooling yourself
· 4 min read
Biases
A model that was right once stops being right without announcing it
· 4 min read
Risk
Every precaution introduces a risk of its own somewhere else
· 3 min read