Biases
Anchoring survived the replication wars, but its explanation did not
· 3 min read
Tara Mukherjee
Contributing editor, Think Twice Today
Tara writes the explanatory pieces on biases, choices, risk and thinks most subjects are more interesting once you know how they work.
17 articles
Biases
Confirmation bias is a search problem before it is a belief problem
· 3 min read
Choices
Why money already spent keeps getting a vote
· 3 min read
Risk
A test that is right most of the time can still be mostly wrong
· 3 min read
Evidence
Analysis has too many degrees of freedom, which is why preregistration exists
· 4 min read
Habits
A streak is a motivation device with a failure mode built in
· 3 min read
Choices
Most decisions are posed as yes or no when they were never that shape
· 3 min read
Evidence
When two experts disagree, the disagreement is the information
· 3 min read
Evidence
Every finding comes attached to the people it was found in
· 3 min read
Habits
Goals set on outcomes leave you nothing to do on Tuesday
· 3 min read
Biases
Motivated reasoning and plain ignorance produce the same wrong answer
· 4 min read
Risk
Every alarm sets a trade between two kinds of error
· 3 min read
Biases
A reason and a rationalisation are indistinguishable from the inside
· 4 min read
Choices
Deciding for someone else produces a different answer from deciding for yourself
· 4 min read
Choices
A forecast and a plan are different documents and should not share a number
· 4 min read
Risk
A one-in-a-million figure was calculated, not observed
· 3 min read
Evidence
The wording of a question is part of the answer it produces
· 3 min read